About this data: I-140 timeline forecast
The forecast estimates how long an I-140 may take to reach a decision. It's built from survival analysis (a Kaplan-Meier/AFT model, refit daily) and a machine-learning model shown for contrast, trained on cases with a known outcome — including cases still pending, so the slow ones aren't left out. For your case, it compares against a cohort: your filing block first, falling back to the service center or site-wide if the block has too few decided cases.
The result is a range — 25th percentile, median, and 75th percentile remaining time — plus a probability of approval vs. denial and the chance of a decision within 7, 30, 90 and 180 days. Each estimate is tagged with a confidence level based on how many decided cases back it: high (100+), medium (30+), low (10+), or very low (under 10). Premium Processing cases use the 45-business-day statutory clock instead of the cohort model. Without an account, this page shows a sample case so you can see how it works.
Frequently asked questions
- Does the forecast mean my case will be decided by that date?
- No. This is a statistical estimate, not a guarantee or legal advice. USCIS doesn't decide cases in strict order, and outliers happen in both directions — faster and slower than the range shown.
- What does the confidence level mean?
- It reflects how many decided cases back the estimate for your cohort: high (100+), medium (30+), low (10+), very low (under 10). Low-confidence estimates are still shown — just treat them as rough indicators.
- Why does Premium Processing show a different estimate?
- Premium Processing cases have a 45-business-day statutory deadline for USCIS to act, so the ETA reflects that legal cap instead of the cohort-based model.
- Can I see my own case's forecast without an account?
- Forecast is in early preview — sign in to run it on your own receipt number. Without an account you'll see a sample case so you know what to expect.